{ "schema": "cortist.evidence-pulse.v1", "asOf": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Editorial review of 32 existing dated Cortist news stories and the thirteen-topic v4 forecast register.", "isLiveFeed": false, "isAutomaticallyRefreshed": false, "independentCalibration": false, "totalNews": 32, "totalTopics": 13, "drafts": 8, "scored": 0, "probabilityUpdatesSinceFirstDraft": 0, "methodology": "Coverage counts include primary-topic and explicit secondary links; news publication dates are not primary-source event dates. Only strictly later publication dates are counted as coverage since an initial forecast snapshot. No qualifying forecast update was issued. The index is a dated snapshot and should be revised via controlled publishing when new source-reviewed news or a new forecast version is published.", "topics": [ { "slug": "agi", "label": "Artificial General Intelligence", "id": "F-001", "forecastState": "provisional_draft", "numeric": { "percent": 38, "version": "v0.1", "recordedDate": "2026-10-22", "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-001/v0.1.json", "locked": false, "scored": false }, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": "2026-10-22", "linkedCoverageCount": 2, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 0, "latestCoverage": [ { "slug": "hassabis-agi-timeline-2026", "title": "Demis Hassabis shortens his AGI timeline. What counts as proof?", "url": "/news/hassabis-agi-timeline-2026/", "published": "2026-10-22", "publishedLabel": "Oct 22, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "google-gemini-4-argon-developer-agents", "title": "Gemini 4 Argon opens to developers. Long-running work becomes the benchmark.", "url": "/news/google-gemini-4-argon-developer-agents/", "published": "2026-10-19", "publishedLabel": "Oct 19, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." } ], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Independent broad-transfer and unfamiliar-task evaluations, not developer-selected demos.", "editorialNote": "News is contextual evidence and is not an automatically applied forecast update." }, { "slug": "superintelligence", "label": "Superintelligence", "id": "F-002", "forecastState": "provisional_draft", "numeric": { "percent": 24, "version": "v0.1", "recordedDate": "2026-10-22", "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-002/v0.1.json", "locked": false, "scored": false }, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": "2026-10-24", "linkedCoverageCount": 3, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 1, "latestCoverage": [ { "slug": "anthropic-mythos-5-aisi-alignment-failures-2026", "title": "Why did Claude Mythos 5 keep attacking a real GitHub project?", "url": "/news/anthropic-mythos-5-aisi-alignment-failures-2026/", "published": "2026-10-24", "publishedLabel": "Oct 24, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "nist-superintelligence-control-incidents", "title": "US agencies prepare for AI control incidents. Is this superintelligence?", "url": "/news/nist-superintelligence-control-incidents/", "published": "2026-10-22", "publishedLabel": "Oct 22, 2026", "kind": "primary_topic", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "hassabis-agi-timeline-2026", "title": "Demis Hassabis shortens his AGI timeline. What counts as proof?", "url": "/news/hassabis-agi-timeline-2026/", "published": "2026-10-22", "publishedLabel": "Oct 22, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." } ], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Cross-domain expert baselines, evaluation independence and accepted event definition.", "editorialNote": "News is contextual evidence and is not an automatically applied forecast update." }, { "slug": "ai-existential-risk", "label": "AI Existential Risk", "id": "X-001", "forecastState": "exploratory_unquantified", "numeric": null, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": "2026-10-24", "linkedCoverageCount": 8, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 0, "latestCoverage": [ { "slug": "google-agent-compute-engine-ai-agent-sandboxes-2026", "title": "Google wants to give every AI agent its own computer. What changes?", "url": "/news/google-agent-compute-engine-ai-agent-sandboxes-2026/", "published": "2026-10-24", "publishedLabel": "Oct 24, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "anthropic-mythos-5-aisi-alignment-failures-2026", "title": "Why did Claude Mythos 5 keep attacking a real GitHub project?", "url": "/news/anthropic-mythos-5-aisi-alignment-failures-2026/", "published": "2026-10-24", "publishedLabel": "Oct 24, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "openai-frontier-training-containment-security-2026", "title": "OpenAI resumed frontier training after a containment breach. What did its agents find?", "url": "/news/openai-frontier-training-containment-security-2026/", "published": "2026-10-24", "publishedLabel": "Oct 24, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." } ], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Specific failure mechanisms, causal exposure evidence and documented mitigations.", "editorialNote": "News is contextual evidence and is not an automatically applied forecast update." }, { "slug": "ai-agents", "label": "AI Agents", "id": "A-001", "forecastState": "research_on_hold", "numeric": null, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": "2026-10-26", "linkedCoverageCount": 12, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 0, "latestCoverage": [ { "slug": "openai-biological-research-ai-agents-2026", "title": "Thousands of AI agents analyze mouse-brain data", "url": "/news/openai-biological-research-ai-agents-2026/", "published": "2026-10-26", "publishedLabel": "Oct 26, 2026", "kind": "primary_topic", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "google-agent-compute-engine-ai-agent-sandboxes-2026", "title": "Google wants to give every AI agent its own computer. What changes?", "url": "/news/google-agent-compute-engine-ai-agent-sandboxes-2026/", "published": "2026-10-24", "publishedLabel": "Oct 24, 2026", "kind": "primary_topic", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "anthropic-mythos-5-aisi-alignment-failures-2026", "title": "Why did Claude Mythos 5 keep attacking a real GitHub project?", "url": "/news/anthropic-mythos-5-aisi-alignment-failures-2026/", "published": "2026-10-24", "publishedLabel": "Oct 24, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." } ], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Multi-hour task success rates, recoverability and independent tests.", "editorialNote": "News is contextual evidence and is not an automatically applied forecast update." }, { "slug": "ai-and-jobs", "label": "AI & Jobs", "id": "J-001", "forecastState": "exploratory_unquantified", "numeric": null, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": "2026-10-26", "linkedCoverageCount": 4, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 0, "latestCoverage": [ { "slug": "iit-madras-ai-jobs-task-framework-2026", "title": "IIT Madras: AI changes tasks, not just jobs", "url": "/news/iit-madras-ai-jobs-task-framework-2026/", "published": "2026-10-26", "publishedLabel": "Oct 26, 2026", "kind": "primary_topic", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "adp-ai-exposed-young-workers-september-2026", "title": "Young workers in AI-exposed jobs fell 3.7% year over year. What the data actually show.", "url": "/news/adp-ai-exposed-young-workers-september-2026/", "published": "2026-10-23", "publishedLabel": "Oct 23, 2026", "kind": "primary_topic", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "anthropic-junior-hiring-ai-agents-2026", "title": "Anthropic's junior technical hiring share fell from 27% to 9%. What changed?", "url": "/news/anthropic-junior-hiring-ai-agents-2026/", "published": "2026-10-23", "publishedLabel": "Oct 23, 2026", "kind": "primary_topic", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." } ], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Employment, wage and task-level changes versus selection and macroeconomic effects.", "editorialNote": "News is contextual evidence and is not an automatically applied forecast update." }, { "slug": "ai-in-medicine", "label": "AI in Medicine", "id": "M-001", "forecastState": "research_on_hold", "numeric": null, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": "2026-10-26", "linkedCoverageCount": 4, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 0, "latestCoverage": [ { "slug": "iambic-iam1363-esmo-2026-clinical-data", "title": "IAM1363 trial: early HER2 results, not approval", "url": "/news/iambic-iam1363-esmo-2026-clinical-data/", "published": "2026-10-26", "publishedLabel": "Oct 26, 2026", "kind": "primary_topic", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "openai-biological-research-ai-agents-2026", "title": "Thousands of AI agents analyze mouse-brain data", "url": "/news/openai-biological-research-ai-agents-2026/", "published": "2026-10-26", "publishedLabel": "Oct 26, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "microsoft-mai-dxo-sequential-diagnosis-science-2026", "title": "Microsoft's diagnostic AI got 83% of difficult cases right. Patients are the harder test.", "url": "/news/microsoft-mai-dxo-sequential-diagnosis-science-2026/", "published": "2026-10-23", "publishedLabel": "Oct 23, 2026", "kind": "primary_topic", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." } ], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Prospective clinical trials, independent validation and patient outcomes.", "editorialNote": "News is contextual evidence and is not an automatically applied forecast update." }, { "slug": "ai-and-energy", "label": "AI & Energy", "id": "E-001", "forecastState": "research_on_hold", "numeric": null, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": "2026-10-24", "linkedCoverageCount": 2, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 0, "latestCoverage": [ { "slug": "bloom-energy-q3-2026-ai-data-center-fuel-cells", "title": "Bloom Energy’s revenue jumped 138%. Does on-site power solve AI’s grid bottleneck?", "url": "/news/bloom-energy-q3-2026-ai-data-center-fuel-cells/", "published": "2026-10-24", "publishedLabel": "Oct 24, 2026", "kind": "primary_topic", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "iea-data-centre-grid-policies-2026", "title": "The IEA counted 134 data-center grid rules. The AI power fight is now about who pays.", "url": "/news/iea-data-centre-grid-policies-2026/", "published": "2026-10-23", "publishedLabel": "Oct 23, 2026", "kind": "primary_topic", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." } ], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Data-center electricity measurements, grid connection timelines and rebound effects.", "editorialNote": "News is contextual evidence and is not an automatically applied forecast update." }, { "slug": "ai-and-robotics", "label": "AI & Robotics", "id": "F-003", "forecastState": "provisional_draft", "numeric": { "percent": 35, "version": "v0.1", "recordedDate": "2026-10-26", "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-003/v0.1.json", "locked": false, "scored": false }, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": null, "linkedCoverageCount": 0, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 0, "latestCoverage": [], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Autonomous full-shift trials without remote steering in unfamiliar physical settings.", "editorialNote": "No Cortist news report has yet been linked to this topic; no new development is claimed." }, { "slug": "ai-cybersecurity", "label": "AI & Cybersecurity", "id": "F-004", "forecastState": "provisional_draft", "numeric": { "percent": 45, "version": "v0.1", "recordedDate": "2026-10-26", "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-004/v0.1.json", "locked": false, "scored": false }, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": "2026-10-24", "linkedCoverageCount": 2, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 0, "latestCoverage": [ { "slug": "anthropic-mythos-5-aisi-alignment-failures-2026", "title": "Why did Claude Mythos 5 keep attacking a real GitHub project?", "url": "/news/anthropic-mythos-5-aisi-alignment-failures-2026/", "published": "2026-10-24", "publishedLabel": "Oct 24, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "openai-frontier-training-containment-security-2026", "title": "OpenAI resumed frontier training after a containment breach. What did its agents find?", "url": "/news/openai-frontier-training-containment-security-2026/", "published": "2026-10-24", "publishedLabel": "Oct 24, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." } ], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Independently audited, authorized defensive cyber-range evaluations.", "editorialNote": "News is contextual evidence and is not an automatically applied forecast update." }, { "slug": "ai-chips-and-compute", "label": "AI Chips & Compute", "id": "F-005", "forecastState": "provisional_draft", "numeric": { "percent": 55, "version": "v0.1", "recordedDate": "2026-10-26", "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-005/v0.1.json", "locked": false, "scored": false }, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": "2026-10-20", "linkedCoverageCount": 3, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 0, "latestCoverage": [ { "slug": "llm-d-10-open-inference-agents-cost", "title": "llm-d 1.0 is here. The next AI price war is about serving, not models.", "url": "/news/llm-d-10-open-inference-agents-cost/", "published": "2026-10-20", "publishedLabel": "Oct 20, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "nvidia-vera-modal-ai-agent-sandbox-benchmarks", "title": "Modal’s NVIDIA Vera tests put the CPU back in the AI-agent story.", "url": "/news/nvidia-vera-modal-ai-agent-sandbox-benchmarks/", "published": "2026-10-20", "publishedLabel": "Oct 20, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "amazon-torchneuron-pytorch-trainium", "title": "Amazon’s TorchNeuron targets the hidden cost of AI: switching chips.", "url": "/news/amazon-torchneuron-pytorch-trainium/", "published": "2026-10-19", "publishedLabel": "Oct 19, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." } ], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Spending-weighted accelerator performance per real dollar against a frozen baseline.", "editorialNote": "News is contextual evidence and is not an automatically applied forecast update." }, { "slug": "ai-and-science", "label": "AI & Science", "id": "F-006", "forecastState": "provisional_draft", "numeric": { "percent": 40, "version": "v0.1", "recordedDate": "2026-10-26", "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-006/v0.1.json", "locked": false, "scored": false }, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": "2026-10-26", "linkedCoverageCount": 3, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 0, "latestCoverage": [ { "slug": "openai-biological-research-ai-agents-2026", "title": "Thousands of AI agents analyze mouse-brain data", "url": "/news/openai-biological-research-ai-agents-2026/", "published": "2026-10-26", "publishedLabel": "Oct 26, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "huggingface-carbon-x-dna-model", "title": "Hugging Face releases Carbon-X: a language model that can read DNA.", "url": "/news/huggingface-carbon-x-dna-model/", "published": "2026-10-23", "publishedLabel": "Oct 23, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "mistral-timestral-forecasting-foundation-models", "title": "Mistral's Timestral points AI toward forecasting the physical world.", "url": "/news/mistral-timestral-forecasting-foundation-models/", "published": "2026-10-19", "publishedLabel": "Oct 19, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." } ], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Novel AI-led hypotheses replicated by a genuinely independent scientific team.", "editorialNote": "News is contextual evidence and is not an automatically applied forecast update." }, { "slug": "ai-and-economy", "label": "AI & Economy", "id": "F-007", "forecastState": "provisional_draft", "numeric": { "percent": 35, "version": "v0.1", "recordedDate": "2026-10-26", "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-007/v0.1.json", "locked": false, "scored": false }, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": "2026-10-26", "linkedCoverageCount": 3, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 0, "latestCoverage": [ { "slug": "iit-madras-ai-jobs-task-framework-2026", "title": "IIT Madras: AI changes tasks, not just jobs", "url": "/news/iit-madras-ai-jobs-task-framework-2026/", "published": "2026-10-26", "publishedLabel": "Oct 26, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "pwc-ai-workforce-skills-divide-2026", "title": "AI use rose to 64%, but training access slipped. PwC's 2026 workforce warning.", "url": "/news/pwc-ai-workforce-skills-divide-2026/", "published": "2026-10-23", "publishedLabel": "Oct 23, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "llm-d-10-open-inference-agents-cost", "title": "llm-d 1.0 is here. The next AI price war is about serving, not models.", "url": "/news/llm-d-10-open-inference-agents-cost/", "published": "2026-10-20", "publishedLabel": "Oct 20, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." } ], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Comparable observed labor-productivity windows with transparent AI counterfactuals.", "editorialNote": "News is contextual evidence and is not an automatically applied forecast update." }, { "slug": "ai-and-governance", "label": "AI & Governance", "id": "F-008", "forecastState": "provisional_draft", "numeric": { "percent": 60, "version": "v0.1", "recordedDate": "2026-10-26", "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-008/v0.1.json", "locked": false, "scored": false }, "checkedAt": "2026-10-27", "latestCoverageAt": "2026-10-22", "linkedCoverageCount": 3, "coverageSinceFirstSnapshot": 0, "latestCoverage": [ { "slug": "nist-superintelligence-control-incidents", "title": "US agencies prepare for AI control incidents. Is this superintelligence?", "url": "/news/nist-superintelligence-control-incidents/", "published": "2026-10-22", "publishedLabel": "Oct 22, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "anthropic-public-benefit-fund-ai-governance", "title": "Anthropic pledges equity to a public-benefit fund. The real test is governance.", "url": "/news/anthropic-public-benefit-fund-ai-governance/", "published": "2026-10-19", "publishedLabel": "Oct 19, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." }, { "slug": "anthropic-metr-independent-ai-evaluators", "title": "Anthropic gives external evaluators access from inside the company.", "url": "/news/anthropic-metr-independent-ai-evaluators/", "published": "2026-10-19", "publishedLabel": "Oct 19, 2026", "kind": "related_context", "interpretation": "Contextual reporting; does not independently resolve the forecast." } ], "forecastVersionChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "probabilityChangeSinceFirstSnapshot": false, "nextVerification": "Enforceable G20 frontier-AI evaluation, reporting and oversight rules in force.", "editorialNote": "News is contextual evidence and is not an automatically applied forecast update." } ] }