{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "snapshot_version": "v0.1",
  "recorded_date": "2026-10-22",
  "publication_state": "draft",
  "locked_at_utc": null,
  "scoring_eligible": false,
  "model": "Cortist subjective scenario curve v0.1, not a statistical estimate",
  "editorial_disclaimer": "Draft editorial judgment, not a statistically measured probability or scored forecast. Resolution criteria are not locked; retrospective scoring is prohibited.",
  "revision_reason": "First machine-readable capture of already published v0.1; created on 22 October 2026 and does not independently timestamp earlier drafts.",
  "forecast_id": "F-001",
  "question": "Will artificial general intelligence (AGI) be independently verified by 31 December 2030, 23:59 UTC?",
  "probability": 0.38,
  "target_deadline_utc": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z",
  "prior_launch_draft_percent": 45,
  "prior_launch_draft_note": "Earlier 45% wording is documented in the current methodology, not in an independently timestamped locked snapshot; it was unscored.",
  "resolution_rules": {
    "state": "proposed",
    "draft_criteria": [
      "Breadth of human-level cognition across diverse domains",
      "Adaptation to unfamiliar tasks",
      "Independent replication and review"
    ],
    "open_decisions": [
      "Exact domains and tasks",
      "Human comparison groups and thresholds",
      "Reliability and evaluator access",
      "Unavailability and contradictory evidence"
    ],
    "accepted_evidence": [
      "Public technical reports",
      "Replicable independent tests",
      "Third-party assessments"
    ],
    "adjudication": "Independent evidence review under criteria fixed BEFORE a future lock; unresolved ambiguity is unscored."
  },
  "sources": [
    "https://cortist.com/forecast/agi-by-2030/",
    "https://cortist.com/methodology/"
  ],
  "notes": "The year slider is scenario interpolation, not separately locked annual forecasts."
}