{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "snapshot_version": "v0.1",
  "recorded_date": "2026-10-22",
  "publication_state": "draft",
  "locked_at_utc": null,
  "scoring_eligible": false,
  "model": "Cortist subjective scenario curve v0.1, not a statistical estimate",
  "editorial_disclaimer": "Draft editorial judgment, not a statistically measured probability or scored forecast. Resolution criteria are not locked; retrospective scoring is prohibited.",
  "revision_reason": "First machine-readable capture of already published v0.1; created on 22 October 2026 and does not independently timestamp earlier drafts.",
  "forecast_id": "F-002",
  "question": "Will artificial superintelligence (ASI) be independently verified by 31 December 2040, 23:59 UTC?",
  "probability": 0.24,
  "target_deadline_utc": "2040-12-31T23:59:00Z",
  "prior_launch_draft_percent": 30,
  "prior_launch_draft_note": "Earlier 30% wording is documented in the current methodology, not in an independently timestamped locked snapshot; it was unscored.",
  "resolution_rules": {
    "state": "proposed",
    "draft_criteria": [
      "Broad superiority over expert human teams in diverse cognitive domains",
      "Preregistered novel tasks with substantial margins",
      "Repeatability and independent evaluation"
    ],
    "open_decisions": [
      "Reference expert teams and domain mix",
      "Performance margins and reliability",
      "Evaluator access",
      "Coordinated multi-agent systems and disputes"
    ],
    "accepted_evidence": [
      "Public technical evidence",
      "Independent assessor reports",
      "Replicable multi-domain tests"
    ],
    "adjudication": "Independent panel review against preregistered criteria; announcements alone never qualify."
  },
  "sources": [
    "https://cortist.com/forecast/superintelligence-by-2040/",
    "https://cortist.com/superintelligence/",
    "https://cortist.com/methodology/"
  ],
  "notes": "ASI is a stricter threshold than AGI; no resolution rules have yet been locked."
}