{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "snapshot_version": "v0.1",
  "recorded_date": "2026-10-26",
  "publication_state": "draft",
  "locked_at_utc": null,
  "scoring_eligible": false,
  "forecast_id": "F-003",
  "topic": "AI & Robotics",
  "model": "Cortist subjective scenario curve v0.1 — editorial judgment, not a measured probability",
  "editorial_disclaimer": "35% is a provisional subjective assessment, not a calibrated scientific estimate. Criteria remain proposed; retrospective scoring is prohibited. The curve is an interpolation scenario, not independent evidence.",
  "question": "By 31 December 2035, 23:59 UTC, will an independent evaluator publicly verify a humanoid robot performing a full eight-hour industrial work shift autonomously, without teleoperation, according to preregistered multi-shift criteria?",
  "probability": 0.35,
  "target_deadline_utc": "2035-12-31T23:59:00Z",
  "curve_anchors": [
    [
      2026,
      0
    ],
    [
      2030,
      8
    ],
    [
      2035,
      35
    ],
    [
      2040,
      60
    ],
    [
      2050,
      78
    ],
    [
      2060,
      88
    ],
    [
      2070,
      93
    ]
  ],
  "resolution_rules": {
    "state": "proposed_not_locked",
    "scope": "At least one physical humanoid robot with arms, legs and onboard real-world perception in a real industrial workplace; laboratory-only and simulated demonstrations do not qualify.",
    "draft_criteria": [
      "A documented eight-hour scheduled shift performing a mixed sequence of meaningful workplace tasks, not only a single repeated motion.",
      "Evidence covering at least 10 distinct eight-hour shifts on at least three dates, with >=80% successful assigned tasks under a preregistered rubric.",
      "No teleoperation, hidden remote joystick/command guidance, human task-steering, or operator-initiated manual resets during counted work; emergency stop and safety observers allowed, but any intervention must be transparently logged.",
      "At least two independently documented test conditions or layouts, with disclosed human preparatory setup and independence checks.",
      "Independent assessors with access to raw logs, intervention logs and enough video or telemetry to reproduce the classification."
    ],
    "open_decisions": [
      "How many distinct tasks and environmental changes count as mixed work?",
      "Whether planned battery breaks, consumable swaps or automated docking qualify within the eight-hour shift.",
      "Choice of independent evaluator, preregistered task mix and objective pass threshold.",
      "How partial human supervision is recorded and when a safety stop fails a trial."
    ],
    "adjudication": "Third-party review against preregistered criteria; company videos and executive predictions alone do not qualify."
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "Google DeepMind, Gemini Robotics 2",
      "url": "https://deepmind.google/blog/gemini-robotics-2-brings-whole-body-intelligence-to-robots/",
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "role": "Company-reported robotic generalization, dexterity and whole-body control; not an eight-hour independently evaluated shift."
    },
    {
      "name": "Figure, Helix 02",
      "url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02",
      "date": "2026-01-27",
      "role": "Company report of a four-minute multi-step demonstration; no independent multi-shift verification."
    },
    {
      "name": "Figure, Helix 2.5",
      "url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-2-5-zero-shot-30-home-generalization",
      "date": "2026-09-17",
      "role": "Company report of zero-shot home generalization; does not establish full eight-hour industrial autonomy."
    },
    {
      "name": "International Federation of Robotics, World Robotics 2025",
      "url": "https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/global-robot-demand-in-factories-doubles-over-10-years%20%20%20",
      "date": "2025-09-25",
      "role": "Industry context on conventional industrial installations; cannot be counted as humanoid autonomy outcomes."
    }
  ],
  "revision_reason": "First public machine-readable draft of F-003, issued with launch of the eighth Cortist topic. Not a previously measured estimate.",
  "publication_context": {
    "historical_score_count": 0,
    "independent_evaluation_status": "not established",
    "r2_archive": "not independently attested",
    "independent_external_timestamp": false,
    "news_duplicate_created": false
  }
}