{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "forecast_id": "F-005",
  "topic": "AI Chips & Compute",
  "snapshot_version": "v0.1",
  "recorded_date": "2026-10-26",
  "publication_state": "draft",
  "locked_at_utc": null,
  "scoring_eligible": false,
  "independent_external_timestamp": false,
  "question": "Will spending-weighted AI accelerator performance per inflation-adjusted dollar in Q4 2030 be at least five times its Q4 2025 value under a consistent independently auditable metric?",
  "probability": 0.55,
  "target_deadline_utc": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z",
  "model": "Cortist subjective editorial scenario curve v0.1; not independently calibrated",
  "curve_anchors": [
    [
      2026,
      4
    ],
    [
      2028,
      25
    ],
    [
      2030,
      55
    ],
    [
      2035,
      82
    ],
    [
      2040,
      91
    ],
    [
      2050,
      97
    ],
    [
      2060,
      99
    ]
  ],
  "resolution_rules": {
    "status": "proposed_not_locked",
    "criteria": [
      "Use the Epoch AI aggregate chip-sales-weighted performance-per-dollar metric in real 2025 USD for Q4 2025 and Q4 2030, or a prospectively frozen, publicly documented equivalent if the series is retired.",
      "Require consistent accelerator types, arithmetic precision, prices, shipment weighting and inflation adjustment.",
      "Independent replication of the measurement and source data; exclude cherry-picked single-chip marketing benchmarks."
    ],
    "adjudication": "To be determined by an independent preregistration and review process. Do not retrospectively score this provisional draft."
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "Epoch AI, AI chip performance per dollar",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/data-insights/chip-performance-per-dollar",
      "scope_note": "Historical spending-weighted data, not an assurance of future 5× improvements."
    },
    {
      "name": "TSMC, A14 process roadmap",
      "url": "https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3228",
      "scope_note": "2028 planned production timeline; manufacturer roadmap, not outcome."
    },
    {
      "name": "NVIDIA, Vera Rubin platform",
      "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-vera-rubin-platform",
      "scope_note": "Manufacturer platform claims require measured price-performance validation."
    }
  ],
  "review_status": "Independent definitions and resolution thresholds are outstanding; the provisional percentage is not proof of measured likelihood.",
  "update_rule": "A future changed probability requires a new versioned path and a source-based rationale; never overwrite the first v0.1 snapshot.",
  "initial_vintage_context": "First public subjective assessment on 2026-10-26, not a prospectively locked independent forecast."
}