{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "forecast_id": "F-006",
  "topic": "AI & Science",
  "snapshot_version": "v0.1",
  "recorded_date": "2026-10-26",
  "publication_state": "draft",
  "locked_at_utc": null,
  "scoring_eligible": false,
  "independent_external_timestamp": false,
  "question": "Will an independent scientific team reproduce a genuinely novel natural-science discovery made predominantly by an autonomous AI research system by 31 December 2035?",
  "probability": 0.4,
  "target_deadline_utc": "2035-12-31T23:59:00Z",
  "model": "Cortist subjective editorial scenario curve v0.1; not independently calibrated",
  "curve_anchors": [
    [
      2026,
      2
    ],
    [
      2030,
      19
    ],
    [
      2035,
      40
    ],
    [
      2040,
      63
    ],
    [
      2050,
      84
    ],
    [
      2060,
      93
    ],
    [
      2070,
      97
    ]
  ],
  "resolution_rules": {
    "status": "proposed_not_locked",
    "criteria": [
      "A new, clearly defined empirical natural-science claim, not merely a literature summary, simulation-only paper or improved benchmark score.",
      "The AI performs primary hypothesis formation, experimental planning and interpretation; human oversight, safety and execution roles are transparently logged.",
      "Independent scientific team reproduces the central finding from a preregistered protocol and releases enough observations for external review."
    ],
    "adjudication": "To be determined by an independent preregistration and review process. Do not retrospectively score this provisional draft."
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "Stanford AI Index 2026, Science",
      "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/science",
      "scope_note": "Shows fast scientific AI progress and poor reproducibility on demanding tasks."
    },
    {
      "name": "Stanford AI Index 2026, Technical Performance",
      "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/technical-performance",
      "scope_note": "Benchmarks have jagged performance and do not prove independent scientific discovery."
    },
    {
      "name": "Stanford AI Index 2026, Full report",
      "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report",
      "scope_note": "Independent compilation of research progress and limitations."
    }
  ],
  "review_status": "Independent definitions and resolution thresholds are outstanding; the provisional percentage is not proof of measured likelihood.",
  "update_rule": "A future changed probability requires a new versioned path and a source-based rationale; never overwrite the first v0.1 snapshot.",
  "initial_vintage_context": "First public subjective assessment on 2026-10-26, not a prospectively locked independent forecast."
}