{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "forecast_id": "F-008",
  "topic": "AI & Governance",
  "snapshot_version": "v0.1",
  "recorded_date": "2026-10-26",
  "publication_state": "draft",
  "locked_at_utc": null,
  "scoring_eligible": false,
  "independent_external_timestamp": false,
  "question": "By 31 December 2032, will at least three G20 jurisdictions enforce binding predeployment frontier-AI safety evaluations and serious-incident reporting through an independent public oversight authority?",
  "probability": 0.6,
  "target_deadline_utc": "2032-12-31T23:59:00Z",
  "model": "Cortist subjective editorial scenario curve v0.1; not independently calibrated",
  "curve_anchors": [
    [
      2026,
      5
    ],
    [
      2028,
      29
    ],
    [
      2032,
      60
    ],
    [
      2035,
      75
    ],
    [
      2040,
      87
    ],
    [
      2050,
      95
    ],
    [
      2060,
      98
    ]
  ],
  "resolution_rules": {
    "status": "proposed_not_locked",
    "criteria": [
      "At least three distinct G20 jurisdictions have enforceable requirements applying to a defined frontier general-purpose AI model class.",
      "A legally responsible public regulator or independent oversight body has authority to inspect or penalize non-compliance.",
      "Both documented predeployment safety evaluation and mandatory serious-incident reporting are in force, not merely voluntary company commitments or announced bills."
    ],
    "adjudication": "To be determined by an independent preregistration and review process. Do not retrospectively score this provisional draft."
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "EU AI Act official implementation timeline",
      "url": "https://ai-act-service-desk.ec.europa.eu/en/ai-act/eu-ai-act-implementation-timeline",
      "scope_note": "European law implementation timing; not evidence of three G20 regimes."
    },
    {
      "name": "NIST AI Risk Management Framework",
      "url": "https://www.nist.gov/itl/ai-risk-management-framework",
      "scope_note": "Voluntary risk-management standard, not an enforceable law."
    },
    {
      "name": "OECD AI Principles",
      "url": "https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/ai-principles.html",
      "scope_note": "International principles are soft-law guidance, not binding requirements."
    },
    {
      "name": "Stanford AI Index 2026, Policy & Governance",
      "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report",
      "scope_note": "Comparative governance and AI policy context."
    }
  ],
  "review_status": "Independent definitions and resolution thresholds are outstanding; the provisional percentage is not proof of measured likelihood.",
  "update_rule": "A future changed probability requires a new versioned path and a source-based rationale; never overwrite the first v0.1 snapshot.",
  "initial_vintage_context": "First public subjective assessment on 2026-10-26, not a prospectively locked independent forecast."
}