{
  "schema_version": "1.1",
  "id": "E-001",
  "date": "2026-10-23",
  "status": "unreviewed_editorial_assumption_scenario_NOT_statistically_calibrated",
  "display_purpose": "Sensitivity analysis only; not a locked or official Cortist forecast probability",
  "probability_percent": 54,
  "scenario_sensitivity_range_percent": [
    39,
    69
  ],
  "range_interpretation": "Judgmental / illustrative parameter variation; NOT a statistical confidence or credible interval",
  "model_type": "triangular sensitivity over non-probabilistic scenario bounds",
  "model_expression": "For threshold t>=mode: P(X>=t)=(upper-t)^2/[(upper-lower)*(upper-mode)]",
  "assumptions": [
    {
      "label": "LBNL 2030 lower scenario bound (not a percentile)",
      "value": 9.5,
      "unit": "percent of US electricity"
    },
    {
      "label": "LBNL reference point as assumed triangular mode",
      "value": 11.8,
      "unit": "percent of US electricity"
    },
    {
      "label": "LBNL upper scenario bound (not a percentile)",
      "value": 15.3,
      "unit": "percent of US electricity"
    },
    {
      "label": "Event threshold",
      "value": 12,
      "unit": "percent of US electricity"
    }
  ],
  "sensitivity": [
    {
      "case": "mode 10.5%",
      "assumedMode": 10.5,
      "probability": 39.1
    },
    {
      "case": "mode 11.8% (published reference as mode)",
      "assumedMode": 11.8,
      "probability": 53.6
    },
    {
      "case": "mode 13.0%",
      "assumedMode": 13,
      "probability": 69.2
    },
    {
      "case": "uniform scenario weighting",
      "probability": 56.9
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "The underlying LBNL bounds are sensitivity scenarios, NOT a predictive probability distribution or 90/95% confidence interval.",
    "A triangular distribution is an editorial modeling assumption, not a probability distribution supplied or endorsed by LBNL.",
    "The 54% value is a transparent hypothetical model result; it is not an independently calibrated chance.",
    "All data centers are counted; their electricity consumption cannot be attributed entirely to AI.",
    "Observed 2030 US electricity statistics, not 2026 projections, will determine eventual resolution."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 2025 report (published June 2026)",
      "url": "https://bies.lbl.gov/publications/united-states-data-center-energy-2025"
    },
    {
      "title": "US Department of Energy technical report entry",
      "url": "https://www.osti.gov/biblio/3374245"
    },
    {
      "title": "US EIA electricity statistics",
      "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/"
    }
  ],
  "prelock_requirements": [
    "Freeze national data-center boundary, treatment of on-site generation and consistent total national electricity denominator.",
    "Identify the independent observed full-year 2030 source and adjudication schedule.",
    "Assign probabilistic meaning to scenario bounds using actual backtested forecast errors or elicited distributions before calling the output calibrated."
  ],
  "forecaster_signoff": false,
  "independent_review_count": 0,
  "locked": false,
  "scoring_eligible": false,
  "automatic_score": false,
  "source_candidate": "/data/forecasts/research/e-001.json",
  "candidate_page": "/forecast/us-data-center-electricity-2030/",
  "version": "0.2",
  "audit_date": "2026-10-23",
  "pre_review_result": "HOLD_NOT_READY_FOR_INDEPENDENT_REVIEW_SIGNOFF",
  "precise_model_working_probability": 53.645320197044335,
  "rounding_rule": "nearest whole percentage point; exact .5 rounds upward",
  "previous_displayed_percentage": 54,
  "correction": "v0.1 displayed 85% and 45% for the exact 85.5% and 45.5% calculations; v0.2 corrects to 86% and 46% under the stated standard rounding rule. E-001 remains 54%.",
  "audit_record": "/data/forecasts/review/e-001-method-audit-20261023-v02.json",
  "previous_version": "/data/forecasts/calibration/e-001-working-20261023.json",
  "external_reviewer_signoffs": 0,
  "independent_validation_complete": false
}