{
  "schema": "cortist.forecast.editorial_approval_policy.v1",
  "policyId": "CORTIST-EDITORIAL-APPROVAL-20261027",
  "effectiveDateUtc": "2026-10-27",
  "authority": "Cortist editorial team / publisher",
  "publicationStatus": "APPROVED_METHOD_ONLY",
  "reviewMode": "CORTIST_EDITORIAL_APPROVAL",
  "externalPeerReviewMandatory": false,
  "externalPeerReviewOptional": true,
  "independentReviewLabelRule": "Never claim Independently Reviewed, externally validated, externally timestamped, endorsed, signed, certified or calibrated unless a real external process and evidence exists.",
  "policyIntent": "Cortist may publish and stand behind its own prospective probability assessments with clearly disclosed internal editorial approval, frozen outcome rules, publicly archived original versions, dated source trails, and later transparent outcomes and errors.",
  "editorialApprovalRequirements": [
    {
      "gate": "E1",
      "criterion": "Question has a precise mutually resolvable binary YES/NO definition, specific jurisdiction/population, start and end including exact UTC cutoff, and explicit excluded cases."
    },
    {
      "gate": "E2",
      "criterion": "Original official/primary sources, interpretation and important counterevidence are linked and dated; material uncertainty is acknowledged."
    },
    {
      "gate": "E3",
      "criterion": "Precommitted decision evidence hierarchy, publication-lag review window, disagreement procedure and treatment of indeterminate outcomes documented."
    },
    {
      "gate": "E4",
      "criterion": "Exactly one expressly approved probability 0–100% plus prose rationale and plausible alternatives, with no implied statistical calibration for subjective estimates."
    },
    {
      "gate": "E5",
      "criterion": "Actual accountable human publisher signs off the specific final question, probability, cutoff and source set before lock. A general commitment to editorial self-approval is NOT approval of individual numbers."
    },
    {
      "gate": "E6",
      "criterion": "A separately dated immutable v1/vN JSON record, file hash and publication time, stored and linkable; subsequent updates are append-only, never silent overwrites."
    },
    {
      "gate": "E7",
      "criterion": "A distinct prospective lock is logged while the event is genuinely in the future. Hosting-provider logs and publisher-controlled digests are useful evidence but not independent third-party time attestation."
    },
    {
      "gate": "E8",
      "criterion": "Conflict-of-interest disclosure, editorial corrections procedure and error scoring policy published; later resolutions use pre-specified primary evidence and unresolved outcomes are not quietly assigned NO."
    }
  ],
  "statuses": [
    {
      "code": "RESEARCH_CANDIDATE",
      "meaning": "Research question being scoped; not an official numerical prediction; cannot be scored."
    },
    {
      "code": "EDITORIAL_REVIEW",
      "meaning": "Cortist is checking primary evidence and definitions; still not approved or scored."
    },
    {
      "code": "EDITORIALLY_APPROVED",
      "meaning": "Specific question and probability have been expressly approved by a real accountable Cortist publisher; external peer review is not implied."
    },
    {
      "code": "EDITORIALLY_LOCKED",
      "meaning": "Approved numeric vintage and event definition were prospectively published as an unmodified, publicly accessible, dated record with a content digest and archived original."
    },
    {
      "code": "INDEPENDENTLY_REVIEWED",
      "meaning": "Optional additional independently signed and documented specialist review. Not a prerequisite for Editorially Approved or Editorially Locked."
    },
    {
      "code": "RESOLVED_YES",
      "meaning": "Published evidence meets every preregistered YES condition after prescribed dispute and source review."
    },
    {
      "code": "RESOLVED_NO",
      "meaning": "The relevant verification window and comprehensive original source rules are satisfied, without qualifying YES event."
    },
    {
      "code": "UNRESOLVED",
      "meaning": "Missing/incomplete evidence, material dispute, or observation-lag not elapsed; excluded from accuracy scoring."
    },
    {
      "code": "SCORED",
      "meaning": "Locked forecast with a verifiable resolved binary outcome scored using preregistered Brier score (p-o)^2, p as fraction."
    }
  ],
  "separationOfDuties": {
    "internalResearch": "ChatGPT can help research, check wording, compare source evidence and prepare a publication draft. This is editorial assistance, not an independent reviewer, not the final editorial approver and not an external timestamp.",
    "accountablePublisher": "The human Cortist publisher/editor explicitly approves each fixed probability and question. Publication workflow records scope of approval; do not fabricate name or electronic signature.",
    "externalExperts": "Optional. If absent, keep counter at zero and do not style an editorial-only review as external validation.",
    "outcomeSources": "Seek independent primary real-world observations/documents whenever possible even without external reviewers; independence of evidence is different from independence of editorial approval."
  },
  "forecastScoring": {
    "formula": "Brier = (p - o)^2",
    "probabilityAsFraction": true,
    "outcomeValues": [
      0,
      1
    ],
    "sampleSizeMinimum": "Show n and scope; do not claim a calibrated model from zero or few outcomes.",
    "vintageRule": "Each lock version keeps its original source/percentage. Later information may create a new dated forecast version but cannot retroactively alter an earlier vintage.",
    "scoredOnlyAfterEvidenceReview": true,
    "excludeUnresolved": true
  },
  "currentStateAsOf2026_10_27": {
    "numericUnscoredTopicDrafts": 8,
    "nonNumericTopicHubs": 5,
    "milestoneCandidateQuestions": 5,
    "editoriallyApprovedNewCM003AndCM004Probabilities": 0,
    "newLockedNumericMilestones": 0,
    "externalReviewerAttestations": 0,
    "scoredResolvedOutcomes": 0
  },
  "nextCandidates": [
    {
      "id": "CM-003",
      "question": "EU Commission fine under Article 101",
      "definitions": "/data/milestones/decision-protocol-v2-20261027.json",
      "decision": "AWAITING_SEPARATE_SPECIFIC_EDITORIAL_APPROVAL",
      "outstanding": "Time-window vs first-ever language, Commission decision baseline, delayed disclosure and NO rule."
    },
    {
      "id": "CM-004",
      "question": "Waymo public paid driverless ride in Munich",
      "definitions": "/data/milestones/decision-protocol-v2-20261027.json",
      "decision": "AWAITING_SEPARATE_SPECIFIC_EDITORIAL_APPROVAL",
      "outstanding": "City-boundary paid ride verification, actual booking evidence, legal operating approvals where applicable and timing of observed service."
    }
  ],
  "immutablePriorRecords": true,
  "originalHistoricalGateReportsRemainHistorical": true,
  "notAnExternalCertificate": true,
  "links": {
    "publicGuide": "/forecast/editorial-approval/",
    "firstSources": "/milestones/verification/",
    "versionHistory": "/forecast/history/",
    "performance": "/forecast/results/",
    "oldReview": "/forecast/review/"
  }
}