{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "registry_id": "cortist-forecast-history-registry",
  "version": "v2",
  "created_utc_date": "2026-10-26",
  "content_as_of": "2026-10-26",
  "policy_version": "v1",
  "state": "active_editorial_registry",
  "topic_count": 8,
  "numeric_public_drafts": 3,
  "official_locked_forecasts": 0,
  "scored_outcomes": 0,
  "notices": [
    "This registry tracks public estimates and research questions; its existence is not independent verification of probability quality.",
    "Original F-001 and F-002 v0.1 machine-readable files are preserved without modification.",
    "A historical version is created ONLY when an actual dated numerical update is published; no change was made on 26 October 2026.",
    "R2 retention and same-site SHA-256 references do not provide independent immutable external timestamping.",
    "F-003 v0.1 is a new subjective estimate, not a scored or independently calibrated forecast. Existing seven-topic register remains at its original path."
  ],
  "archive": {
    "record_manifest": "/data/forecasts/manifest.json",
    "archive_attestation": "/data/forecasts/archive-attestation-v1.json",
    "independent_cryptographic_timestamp": false,
    "third_party_review_approved": false,
    "locked_forecast_count": 0
  },
  "topics": [
    {
      "id": "F-001",
      "slug": "agi",
      "label": "Artificial General Intelligence",
      "short": "AGI",
      "question": "Will independently verified AGI arrive by 31 December 2030?",
      "deadline": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "provisional_draft",
      "numeric": {
        "probability": 0.38,
        "percent": 38,
        "snapshotVersion": "v0.1",
        "recordedDate": "2026-10-22",
        "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-001/v0.1.json",
        "sha256": "5e4416bf7b6c6b3caf63c4926998cf1f5ceb3c5f81ea6d07f6859373238c618b",
        "locked": false,
        "scoringEligible": false
      },
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "v0.1",
          "recordedDate": "2026-10-22",
          "value": 0.38,
          "state": "draft",
          "path": "/data/forecasts/F-001/v0.1.json",
          "reason": "First machine-readable capture of the already published provisional 2030 probability; not a prospectively locked version.",
          "sha256": "5e4416bf7b6c6b3caf63c4926998cf1f5ceb3c5f81ea6d07f6859373238c618b"
        }
      ],
      "olderUnscored": {
        "percent": 45,
        "notice": "An earlier 45% launch draft is mentioned in the methodology but is not an independently time-stamped or locked snapshot; excluded from official scored version history."
      },
      "detail": "/forecast/agi-by-2030/",
      "triggers": [
        "Independent multi-domain generalization tests",
        "Pre-registered transfer and task reliability",
        "Replication by assessors independent of model provider"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F-002",
      "slug": "superintelligence",
      "label": "Superintelligence",
      "short": "ASI",
      "question": "Will independently verified ASI arrive by 31 December 2040?",
      "deadline": "2040-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "provisional_draft",
      "numeric": {
        "probability": 0.24,
        "percent": 24,
        "snapshotVersion": "v0.1",
        "recordedDate": "2026-10-22",
        "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-002/v0.1.json",
        "sha256": "cb742c65cfd5c6b51a28cdfa9e655e096c77b2d6d2658f8aaac91d57ffd061b7",
        "locked": false,
        "scoringEligible": false
      },
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "v0.1",
          "recordedDate": "2026-10-22",
          "value": 0.24,
          "state": "draft",
          "path": "/data/forecasts/F-002/v0.1.json",
          "reason": "First published machine-readable provisional ASI estimate; exact independence and superiority thresholds are still proposals.",
          "sha256": "cb742c65cfd5c6b51a28cdfa9e655e096c77b2d6d2658f8aaac91d57ffd061b7"
        }
      ],
      "olderUnscored": {
        "percent": 30,
        "notice": "Earlier 30% launch wording is not a prospectively locked and independently timestamped version; excluded from the scored record."
      },
      "detail": "/forecast/superintelligence-by-2040/",
      "triggers": [
        "Reliable superhuman results across diverse domains",
        "Independent tests against suitable expert teams",
        "Replicated novelty and autonomy thresholds"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "X-001",
      "slug": "ai-existential-risk",
      "label": "AI Existential Risk",
      "short": "AI Risk",
      "question": "Will AI cause human extinction by 31 December 2100?",
      "deadline": "2100-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "exploratory_unquantified",
      "numeric": null,
      "versions": [],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/ai-existential-risk/",
      "triggers": [
        "Precise causal definition and resolution standard",
        "Verified evidence about capability, access and control",
        "Independent analysis of credible risk pathways"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "A-001",
      "slug": "ai-agents",
      "label": "AI Agents",
      "short": "Agents",
      "question": "Will agents reach an eight-hour technical task horizon at 80% success by 31 December 2028?",
      "deadline": "2028-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "research_on_hold",
      "numeric": null,
      "versions": [],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/ai-agents-eight-hour-tasks-2028/",
      "triggers": [
        "Independent 80% success assessment",
        "Preregistered task suites and thresholds",
        "Reliable replicated long-horizon evaluations"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "J-001",
      "slug": "ai-and-jobs",
      "label": "AI & Jobs",
      "short": "Jobs",
      "question": "Will early-career AI-exposed hiring diverge from a preregistered comparison group by 2030?",
      "deadline": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "exploratory_unquantified",
      "numeric": null,
      "versions": [],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/ai-and-jobs/",
      "triggers": [
        "Frozen exposure index and population",
        "Clearly measurable comparison group",
        "Longitudinal hiring and wage evidence"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "M-001",
      "slug": "ai-in-medicine",
      "label": "AI in Medicine",
      "short": "Medicine",
      "question": "Will a verifiably AI-designed novel drug receive FDA approval by 31 December 2032?",
      "deadline": "2032-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "research_on_hold",
      "numeric": null,
      "versions": [],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/ai-designed-drug-fda-approval-2032/",
      "triggers": [
        "FDA approval and drug identity",
        "Verifiable AI design provenance",
        "Independent review of drug development chronology"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "E-001",
      "slug": "ai-and-energy",
      "label": "AI & Energy",
      "short": "Energy",
      "question": "Will data centers account for at least 12% of US electricity use in calendar 2030?",
      "deadline": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "research_on_hold",
      "numeric": null,
      "versions": [],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/us-data-center-electricity-2030/",
      "triggers": [
        "Comparable US consumption measurement",
        "Separation of grid requests from realized energy",
        "Clearly documented numerator and denominator"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F-003",
      "slug": "ai-and-robotics",
      "label": "AI & Robotics",
      "short": "Robotics",
      "question": "By 31 December 2035, 23:59 UTC, will an independent evaluator publicly verify a humanoid robot performing a full eight-hour industrial work shift autonomously, without teleoperation, according to preregistered multi-shift criteria?",
      "deadline": "2035-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "provisional_draft",
      "numeric": {
        "probability": 0.35,
        "percent": 35,
        "snapshotVersion": "v0.1",
        "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
        "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-003/v0.1.json",
        "locked": false,
        "scoringEligible": false
      },
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "v0.1",
          "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
          "value": 0.35,
          "state": "draft",
          "path": "/data/forecasts/F-003/v0.1.json",
          "reason": "Initial transparent subjective scenario estimate of verified full-shift humanoid robot autonomy; not independently calibrated, locked or scored."
        }
      ],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/robotics-autonomous-shift-2035/",
      "triggers": [
        "Independent full-shift, multi-task robot evaluations",
        "Teleoperation exclusions with published intervention logs",
        "Independent replication across changes in task setup"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "previous_registry_path": "/data/forecasts/history/registry-v1-20261026.json"
}