{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "registry_id": "cortist-forecast-history-registry",
  "version": "v4",
  "created_utc_date": "2026-10-26",
  "content_as_of": "2026-10-26",
  "policy_version": "v2",
  "state": "active_editorial_registry",
  "topic_count": 13,
  "numeric_public_drafts": 8,
  "official_locked_forecasts": 0,
  "scored_outcomes": 0,
  "notices": [
    "This registry tracks public estimates and research questions; its existence is not independent verification of probability quality.",
    "Original F-001 and F-002 v0.1 machine-readable files are preserved without modification.",
    "A historical version is created ONLY when an actual dated numerical update is published; no change was made on 26 October 2026.",
    "R2 retention and same-site SHA-256 references do not provide independent immutable external timestamping.",
    "F-003 v0.1 is a new subjective estimate, not a scored or independently calibrated forecast. Existing seven-topic register remains at its original path.",
    "F-004 is a new 45% provisional subjective cyber-range draft; independent evaluation, locked definitions and external timestamp are still absent. Older registers remain unchanged.",
    "F-005 through F-008 are new, provisional subjective drafts only. No changes were made to older v0.1 snapshots or previous registries. The four new criteria remain independently unapproved.",
    "Update policy v2 covers thirteen topics. Historical policy v1 remains available for independent comparison."
  ],
  "archive": {
    "record_manifest": "/data/forecasts/manifest.json",
    "archive_attestation": "/data/forecasts/archive-attestation-v1.json",
    "independent_cryptographic_timestamp": false,
    "third_party_review_approved": false,
    "locked_forecast_count": 0
  },
  "topics": [
    {
      "id": "F-001",
      "slug": "agi",
      "label": "Artificial General Intelligence",
      "short": "AGI",
      "question": "Will independently verified AGI arrive by 31 December 2030?",
      "deadline": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "provisional_draft",
      "numeric": {
        "probability": 0.38,
        "percent": 38,
        "snapshotVersion": "v0.1",
        "recordedDate": "2026-10-22",
        "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-001/v0.1.json",
        "sha256": "5e4416bf7b6c6b3caf63c4926998cf1f5ceb3c5f81ea6d07f6859373238c618b",
        "locked": false,
        "scoringEligible": false
      },
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "v0.1",
          "recordedDate": "2026-10-22",
          "value": 0.38,
          "state": "draft",
          "path": "/data/forecasts/F-001/v0.1.json",
          "reason": "First machine-readable capture of the already published provisional 2030 probability; not a prospectively locked version.",
          "sha256": "5e4416bf7b6c6b3caf63c4926998cf1f5ceb3c5f81ea6d07f6859373238c618b"
        }
      ],
      "olderUnscored": {
        "percent": 45,
        "notice": "An earlier 45% launch draft is mentioned in the methodology but is not an independently time-stamped or locked snapshot; excluded from official scored version history."
      },
      "detail": "/forecast/agi-by-2030/",
      "triggers": [
        "Independent multi-domain generalization tests",
        "Pre-registered transfer and task reliability",
        "Replication by assessors independent of model provider"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F-002",
      "slug": "superintelligence",
      "label": "Superintelligence",
      "short": "ASI",
      "question": "Will independently verified ASI arrive by 31 December 2040?",
      "deadline": "2040-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "provisional_draft",
      "numeric": {
        "probability": 0.24,
        "percent": 24,
        "snapshotVersion": "v0.1",
        "recordedDate": "2026-10-22",
        "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-002/v0.1.json",
        "sha256": "cb742c65cfd5c6b51a28cdfa9e655e096c77b2d6d2658f8aaac91d57ffd061b7",
        "locked": false,
        "scoringEligible": false
      },
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "v0.1",
          "recordedDate": "2026-10-22",
          "value": 0.24,
          "state": "draft",
          "path": "/data/forecasts/F-002/v0.1.json",
          "reason": "First published machine-readable provisional ASI estimate; exact independence and superiority thresholds are still proposals.",
          "sha256": "cb742c65cfd5c6b51a28cdfa9e655e096c77b2d6d2658f8aaac91d57ffd061b7"
        }
      ],
      "olderUnscored": {
        "percent": 30,
        "notice": "Earlier 30% launch wording is not a prospectively locked and independently timestamped version; excluded from the scored record."
      },
      "detail": "/forecast/superintelligence-by-2040/",
      "triggers": [
        "Reliable superhuman results across diverse domains",
        "Independent tests against suitable expert teams",
        "Replicated novelty and autonomy thresholds"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "X-001",
      "slug": "ai-existential-risk",
      "label": "AI Existential Risk",
      "short": "AI Risk",
      "question": "Will AI cause human extinction by 31 December 2100?",
      "deadline": "2100-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "exploratory_unquantified",
      "numeric": null,
      "versions": [],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/ai-existential-risk/",
      "triggers": [
        "Precise causal definition and resolution standard",
        "Verified evidence about capability, access and control",
        "Independent analysis of credible risk pathways"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "A-001",
      "slug": "ai-agents",
      "label": "AI Agents",
      "short": "Agents",
      "question": "Will agents reach an eight-hour technical task horizon at 80% success by 31 December 2028?",
      "deadline": "2028-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "research_on_hold",
      "numeric": null,
      "versions": [],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/ai-agents-eight-hour-tasks-2028/",
      "triggers": [
        "Independent 80% success assessment",
        "Preregistered task suites and thresholds",
        "Reliable replicated long-horizon evaluations"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "J-001",
      "slug": "ai-and-jobs",
      "label": "AI & Jobs",
      "short": "Jobs",
      "question": "Will early-career AI-exposed hiring diverge from a preregistered comparison group by 2030?",
      "deadline": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "exploratory_unquantified",
      "numeric": null,
      "versions": [],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/ai-and-jobs/",
      "triggers": [
        "Frozen exposure index and population",
        "Clearly measurable comparison group",
        "Longitudinal hiring and wage evidence"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "M-001",
      "slug": "ai-in-medicine",
      "label": "AI in Medicine",
      "short": "Medicine",
      "question": "Will a verifiably AI-designed novel drug receive FDA approval by 31 December 2032?",
      "deadline": "2032-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "research_on_hold",
      "numeric": null,
      "versions": [],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/ai-designed-drug-fda-approval-2032/",
      "triggers": [
        "FDA approval and drug identity",
        "Verifiable AI design provenance",
        "Independent review of drug development chronology"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "E-001",
      "slug": "ai-and-energy",
      "label": "AI & Energy",
      "short": "Energy",
      "question": "Will data centers account for at least 12% of US electricity use in calendar 2030?",
      "deadline": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "research_on_hold",
      "numeric": null,
      "versions": [],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/us-data-center-electricity-2030/",
      "triggers": [
        "Comparable US consumption measurement",
        "Separation of grid requests from realized energy",
        "Clearly documented numerator and denominator"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F-003",
      "slug": "ai-and-robotics",
      "label": "AI & Robotics",
      "short": "Robotics",
      "question": "By 31 December 2035, 23:59 UTC, will an independent evaluator publicly verify a humanoid robot performing a full eight-hour industrial work shift autonomously, without teleoperation, according to preregistered multi-shift criteria?",
      "deadline": "2035-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "provisional_draft",
      "numeric": {
        "probability": 0.35,
        "percent": 35,
        "snapshotVersion": "v0.1",
        "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
        "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-003/v0.1.json",
        "locked": false,
        "scoringEligible": false
      },
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "v0.1",
          "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
          "value": 0.35,
          "state": "draft",
          "path": "/data/forecasts/F-003/v0.1.json",
          "reason": "Initial transparent subjective scenario estimate of verified full-shift humanoid robot autonomy; not independently calibrated, locked or scored."
        }
      ],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/robotics-autonomous-shift-2035/",
      "triggers": [
        "Independent full-shift, multi-task robot evaluations",
        "Teleoperation exclusions with published intervention logs",
        "Independent replication across changes in task setup"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F-004",
      "slug": "ai-cybersecurity",
      "label": "AI & Cybersecurity",
      "short": "Cybersecurity",
      "question": "By 31 December 2030, will an independent assessor verify an AI agent completing complex end-to-end authorized cyber attack simulations in at least three isolated, actively defended cyber ranges at 80% or greater success in repeated trials, with no human tactical steering?",
      "deadline": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "provisional_draft",
      "numeric": {
        "probability": 0.45,
        "percent": 45,
        "snapshotVersion": "v0.1",
        "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
        "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-004/v0.1.json",
        "locked": false,
        "scoringEligible": false
      },
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "v0.1",
          "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
          "value": 0.45,
          "state": "draft",
          "path": "/data/forecasts/F-004/v0.1.json",
          "reason": "First provisional subjective forecast for controlled multi-range autonomous cyber capability; not independently locked or scored."
        }
      ],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/autonomous-cyber-agents-2030/",
      "triggers": [
        "Independent replicated cyber-range studies with active defenders",
        "Long-horizon complete-case success rather than isolated task steps",
        "Documented agent autonomy, benchmark design and safe reproducibility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F-005",
      "slug": "ai-chips-and-compute",
      "label": "AI Chips & Compute",
      "short": "Chips",
      "question": "Will spending-weighted AI accelerator performance per inflation-adjusted dollar in Q4 2030 be at least five times its Q4 2025 value under a consistent independently auditable metric?",
      "deadline": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "provisional_draft",
      "numeric": {
        "probability": 0.55,
        "percent": 55,
        "snapshotVersion": "v0.1",
        "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
        "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-005/v0.1.json",
        "locked": false,
        "scoringEligible": false
      },
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "v0.1",
          "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
          "value": 0.55,
          "state": "draft",
          "path": "/data/forecasts/F-005/v0.1.json",
          "reason": "First provisional editorial scenario based on disclosed research; not independently locked, verified or scored."
        }
      ],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/ai-chips-and-compute-2030/",
      "triggers": [
        "Epoch AI 2030 performance-per-dollar dataset",
        "Audited accelerator mix and cost assumptions",
        "Independent comparison of 2025 and 2030 quarters"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F-006",
      "slug": "ai-and-science",
      "label": "AI & Science",
      "short": "Science",
      "question": "Will an independent scientific team reproduce a genuinely novel natural-science discovery made predominantly by an autonomous AI research system by 31 December 2035?",
      "deadline": "2035-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "provisional_draft",
      "numeric": {
        "probability": 0.4,
        "percent": 40,
        "snapshotVersion": "v0.1",
        "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
        "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-006/v0.1.json",
        "locked": false,
        "scoringEligible": false
      },
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "v0.1",
          "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
          "value": 0.4,
          "state": "draft",
          "path": "/data/forecasts/F-006/v0.1.json",
          "reason": "First provisional editorial scenario based on disclosed research; not independently locked, verified or scored."
        }
      ],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/ai-and-science-2035/",
      "triggers": [
        "Independent reproduction of AI-generated discoveries",
        "End-to-end task autonomy assessments",
        "Transparent attribution of AI and human research roles"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F-007",
      "slug": "ai-and-economy",
      "label": "AI & Economy",
      "short": "Economy",
      "question": "By 31 December 2035, will at least two independent macroeconomic analyses attribute an additional one percentage point or more of annual US labor-productivity growth to AI over a common three-year observation period?",
      "deadline": "2035-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "provisional_draft",
      "numeric": {
        "probability": 0.35,
        "percent": 35,
        "snapshotVersion": "v0.1",
        "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
        "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-007/v0.1.json",
        "locked": false,
        "scoringEligible": false
      },
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "v0.1",
          "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
          "value": 0.35,
          "state": "draft",
          "path": "/data/forecasts/F-007/v0.1.json",
          "reason": "First provisional editorial scenario based on disclosed research; not independently locked, verified or scored."
        }
      ],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/ai-and-economy-2035/",
      "triggers": [
        "Multiple independent AI productivity attribution studies",
        "Comparable three-year US growth observations",
        "Methodological transparency and counterfactual robustness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F-008",
      "slug": "ai-and-governance",
      "label": "AI & Governance",
      "short": "Governance",
      "question": "By 31 December 2032, will at least three G20 jurisdictions enforce binding predeployment frontier-AI safety evaluations and serious-incident reporting through an independent public oversight authority?",
      "deadline": "2032-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "state": "provisional_draft",
      "numeric": {
        "probability": 0.6,
        "percent": 60,
        "snapshotVersion": "v0.1",
        "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
        "recordPath": "/data/forecasts/F-008/v0.1.json",
        "locked": false,
        "scoringEligible": false
      },
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "v0.1",
          "recordedDate": "2026-10-26",
          "value": 0.6,
          "state": "draft",
          "path": "/data/forecasts/F-008/v0.1.json",
          "reason": "First provisional editorial scenario based on disclosed research; not independently locked, verified or scored."
        }
      ],
      "olderUnscored": null,
      "detail": "/forecast/ai-and-governance-2032/",
      "triggers": [
        "G20 frontier-AI statutes and enforcement rules",
        "Mandatory serious-incident reporting systems",
        "Independent oversight and actual implementation"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "previous_registry_path": "/data/forecasts/history/registry-v3-nine-topics-20261026.json",
  "current_policy_path": "/data/forecasts/history/update-policy-v2-20261026.json"
}