{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "version": "v1",
  "issued_on": "2026-10-26",
  "scope": "all seven Cortist forecast topics",
  "public_history_page": "/forecast/history/",
  "rules": [
    "Before publishing an updated probability, record the question ID, unchanged resolution target, UTC issue date, old probability, proposed new probability, primary-source evidence and change rationale.",
    "Write the new probability to a NEW versioned file (e.g. /data/forecasts/F-001/v0.2.json). Do not edit /data/forecasts/F-001/v0.1.json or the earlier versioned registry.",
    "Create a new versioned seven-topic registry file, and update the mutable current pointer, all affected HTML percentages, forecast detail, history display, machine-readable manifest and news/topic context in ONE preview-validated publish.",
    "If a resolution definition changes materially, create a NEW forecast ID or mark a clearly distinct question; never treat such a change as an ordinary numerical update of an already scored series.",
    "Run JSON/schema/canonical/internal link/desktop/mobile asset QA; compare production and preview manifests, require exact expected diff and archive checksums, then confirm production deployment and live rendering.",
    "Store evidence and review comments; distinguish new independent measurements from a researcher prediction or company press claim; no mechanically inferred probability jumps.",
    "No existing retrospective draft may be relabeled locked, calibrated, scored, immutable or externally timestamped. A future lock requires independent preregistration review, approved criteria and an external timestamp.",
    "Track proposal, reviewer decision, preview approval, publication UTC timestamp, permanent previous snapshot and scoring eligibility as separate fields; public scorecards may include only eligible resolution events.",
    "For research-on-hold or exploratory questions, do not display working-model percentages as official probabilities."
  ],
  "next_revision_schema": {
    "forecast_id": "F-001",
    "new_version": "v0.2",
    "issued_at_utc": "required ISO-8601 timestamp",
    "prior_snapshot_path": "/data/forecasts/F-001/v0.1.json",
    "new_snapshot_path": "new immutable-by-editorial-policy path",
    "probability_old": "0..1",
    "probability_new": "0..1",
    "justification": "specific evidence and model impact",
    "evidence_sources": [
      "one or more source URLs"
    ],
    "counterarguments": [
      "known uncertainty"
    ],
    "review_status": "documented",
    "scoring_eligible": false,
    "locked_at_utc": null
  },
  "disclosure": "Policy and versioned storage enforce editorial traceability only; no independently audited immutability or automatic forecast-model calibration is claimed."
}