{
  "schema_version": "2.0",
  "version": "v2",
  "issued_on": "2026-10-26",
  "scope": "all thirteen Cortist AI future topics",
  "original_policy": "/data/forecasts/history/update-policy-v1.json",
  "public_history_page": "/forecast/history/",
  "manual_or_automated_updates": "Only controlled source-based and reviewer-approved updates are eligible for publication; automatic unsupervised probability changes are not activated.",
  "rules": [
    "An existing published probability is never overwritten: publish a new dated forecast ID/version path and maintain the prior snapshot.",
    "Use explicit UTC issuance times, event question, horizon, former probability, new probability, original evidence URLs, reasoning and counterevidence.",
    "Review the question definition and adjudication standard before any official lock. Material target changes require a new question ID; do not retroactively reshape a prior forecast.",
    "Distinguish provisional editorial scenario curves from independent observations, calibrated probabilities and eligible scored forecasts.",
    "Maintain a uniquely versioned historical registry snapshot for each change, updating only the mutable current.json locator and current HTML displays.",
    "Review primary sources, conflicts of interest and datasets and separately identify manufacturer claims, peer-reviewed research, institutional statistics and independent replications.",
    "Use pre-publication previews and run mobile, desktop, reference and routing QA; require exact expected asset diff before controlled production publish.",
    "Original F-001 through F-008 v0.1 snapshots remain unchanged. R2 and same-site checksums are operator-controlled and do not constitute externally immutable timestamping.",
    "Non-numerical topics remain unquantified until a separate documented first estimate is issued. No probabilities should be invented by summarization or automation.",
    "After independent adjudication, score only pre-registered and prospectively locked questions; disclose forecast vintage, methodology and failure cases.",
    "New topic news associations must preserve original article provenance and primary categories, and should not be used as proof of forecast outcomes."
  ],
  "next_version_template": {
    "forecast_id": "F-005",
    "prior_version": "v0.1",
    "next_version": "v0.2",
    "issued_at_utc": "required and externally verifiable for future scored forecasts",
    "prior_snapshot_path": "/data/forecasts/F-005/v0.1.json",
    "new_snapshot_path": "new path",
    "old_probability": 0.55,
    "new_probability": "requires transparent rationale",
    "evidence_urls": [
      "required"
    ],
    "contradictory_evidence": [
      "required"
    ],
    "resolution_review": "required",
    "scoring_eligible": false,
    "locked_at_utc": null
  },
  "limits": [
    "A versioned file path is not technical WORM retention.",
    "No automatic AI model is yet trained to produce these probabilities.",
    "The live site does not represent independent expert calibration or accepted scoring criteria."
  ]
}