{
  "schema": "cortist.forecast.official_editorial_v1",
  "issueDateUtc": "2026-10-27",
  "createdAtUtc": "2026-10-27T11:32:43.648Z",
  "publisher": "Cortist editorial publisher (identity not publicly supplied)",
  "approvalBasis": "Explicit human publisher approval on 2026-10-27 of CM-003 at 20% and CM-004 at 15%, their event cutoff, and described YES/NO tests; no independent reviewer signature asserted.",
  "editorialApprovalPolicy": "/data/forecasts/editorial-approval-policy-v1-20261027.json",
  "reviewMode": "CORTIST_EDITORIALLY_APPROVED",
  "externalReview": "NOT_PERFORMED",
  "externalSignoffs": 0,
  "contentLock": "This JSON is a new separate v1 official forecast vintage. It must never be changed at its URL; amendments use new v2 URLs. Cloudflare Pages deployment proves which bytes were released, but publisher-controlled hashes do not confer third-party independent time attestation.",
  "publicStatus": "OFFICIAL_AFTER_SUCCESSFUL_PRODUCTION_DEPLOYMENT",
  "lockTrigger": "The first successful cortist.com production deployment containing this exact file SHA-256 and the paired registry is the prospective forecast lock; preview or KV staging does not count.",
  "windowStart": "First successful production deployment timestamp for the exact original v1 asset, which is after publisher approval on 2026-10-27.",
  "windowEndUtc": "2027-10-27T23:59:59Z",
  "windowEndInclusive": true,
  "afterEventObservationUntilUtc": "2028-01-25T23:59:59Z",
  "scoreEligibility": "Valid prospectively published event window and adjudication must be evidenced before the Brier score is computed.",
  "BrierScoring": "If resolved YES or NO under original rules: (p - outcome)^2 where p is 0–1 and outcome is 1 or 0. If INDETERMINATE/UNRESOLVED, publish the ambiguity and do not score.",
  "originalMilestoneRegistry": "/data/milestones/registry-v1-20261027.json",
  "sourceAudit": "/data/milestones/source-audit-v1-20261027.json",
  "draftCriteria": "/data/milestones/decision-protocol-v2-20261027.json",
  "forecasterIdentityClaim": "Editorial publisher, not independent peer review; the exact legal name and signature are not published.",
  "conflictDisclosure": "No external reviewer; editorial and original-filing sources are linked. No specific private financial or organizational conflict declaration was supplied by the publisher; do not infer that none exists.",
  "scoreStatus": "PENDING_EVENT",
  "resolutionStatus": "UNRESOLVED",
  "actualOutcome": null,
  "scoredAtUtc": null,
  "brierScore": null,
  "probabilityKind": "Subjective editorial judgement, not a statistically calibrated frequency or external expert consensus.",
  "id": "CM-004-20261027-v1",
  "candidateId": "CM-004",
  "version": "v1.0",
  "title": "Waymo completes a public paid driverless ride inside Munich before 27 October 2027",
  "shortTitle": "Paid driverless Waymo Munich ride by Oct 2027",
  "probability": 0.15,
  "probabilityPercent": 15,
  "detailUrl": "/forecast/official/cm-004-waymo-munich-driverless-2027/",
  "milestonePage": "/milestones/waymo-munich-paid-driverless-rides-2027/",
  "officialQuestion": "After this forecast first goes live on cortist.com and no later than 27 October 2027, 23:59:59 UTC, will a member of the general public complete at least one publicly bookable, paid Waymo passenger ride within Munich municipal boundaries, with no onboard safety driver?",
  "interpretation": "This event requires completed real passenger service, not an announcement. Waymo and the City of Munich say they target commercial operation towards late 2027, after Cortist’s original 27 October deadline.",
  "positiveRules": [
    "An ordinary member of the public (not an employee or invitation-only tester) can book a passenger ride using a genuinely public Waymo booking channel at a non-zero fare.",
    "At least one booked, paid passenger ride is actually completed with both pick-up and drop-off inside the official City of Munich municipal boundary.",
    "There is no human safety driver/operator onboard throughout the passenger trip; normal remotely monitored fully autonomous service may qualify unless direct continuous human teleoperation drove the car.",
    "The completed ride takes place on/after the official forecast production release timestamp and at/before 2027-10-27T23:59:59Z; dated original operator records plus independently corroborating ride/fare evidence establish it."
  ],
  "excludedCases": [
    "Mapping drives, training/validation with an onboard safety driver, closed tests or invitation-only demonstrations.",
    "Waitlists, permit applications, issued permits, press releases or announced future dates without an actual publicly paid completed passenger ride.",
    "Free demonstration or promotional media event, service elsewhere in the Munich region, trip without a public payable booking, or a completed trip after cutoff.",
    "Full remote human driving instead of a functioning autonomous ride."
  ],
  "documentTimeRule": "Date of a verifiable qualifying completed ride controls, not press-announcement date, mapping date, service permit issuance or booking availability alone.",
  "resolutionEvidencePriority": [
    "Waymo official public launch/booking notice with actual municipal service footprint",
    "Privacy-respecting verifiable passenger or operator trip record proving a fare, completion and no onboard safety driver",
    "Independent City of Munich/Bavarian regulator information supporting licensed public operation or trustworthy independent passenger test"
  ],
  "negativeDecisionRule": "After the 90-day review grace, check publicly available booking history, dated operator service-area announcements and municipality/competent regulator records for completed paid public driverless Munich service before cutoff. If coverage is materially incomplete, mark UNRESOLVED rather than infer a negative from lack of a press release.",
  "disputeRule": "Publish exact evidence, municipal boundary decision, proof of fare, onboard supervision assessment and date as a separate versioned resolution record; never change this original.",
  "rationale": "Waymo has meaningful driverless passenger-service experience in other regions, making a Munich launch conceivable. However, official Munich testing is still at the validation-driver stage and both Waymo and municipal sources explicitly target the end of 2027. Cortist’s 27 October cutoff is earlier, and public paid operation needs local authorization and operational readiness. A 15% chance reflects a plausible but relatively unlikely accelerated launch.",
  "keyCounterarguments": [
    "Waymo may transfer proven operations, vehicle stack and processes across cities faster than expected.",
    "The stated late-2027 public target could include October if launch phases accelerate.",
    "A small public geography may begin commercial driverless rides earlier than broad municipal rollout."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "type": "operator",
      "title": "Waymo — Servus München, announcement (25 Aug 2026)",
      "url": "https://waymo.com/blog/2026/08/waymo-in-munich/"
    },
    {
      "type": "operator",
      "title": "Waymo — Germany testing and booking FAQ",
      "url": "https://waymo.com/waymo-in-germany/"
    },
    {
      "type": "municipality",
      "title": "City of Munich — Waymo robotaxi plans",
      "url": "https://stadt.muenchen.de/lhm-ms-wirtschaftsfoerderung/meldungen/waymo-robotaxi.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "regulatory",
      "title": "German AFGBV autonomous driving rules",
      "url": "https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/afgbv/BJNR098610022.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "government",
      "title": "Bavarian autonomous driving permit framework",
      "url": "https://www.autonomes-fahren.bayern.de/recht/index.php"
    }
  ],
  "sourceReviewDateUtc": "2026-10-27",
  "openDataLimitation": "Operator still describes testing only, not commercial rides; applicable permit/approved service area has not independently been confirmed."
}