{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "id": "E-001",
  "name": "AI & Energy",
  "slug": "us-data-center-electricity-2030",
  "canonical_url": "https://cortist.com/forecast/us-data-center-electricity-2030/",
  "question": "Will data centers use at least 12% of US electricity in 2030?",
  "status": "editorial_candidate",
  "publication_date": "2026-10-23",
  "deadline_utc": "2030-12-31T23:59:59Z",
  "probability": null,
  "has_numerical_forecast": false,
  "independently_locked": false,
  "scoring_eligible": false,
  "scored": false,
  "forecast_owner": "Cortist editorial research",
  "event_definition": "US data-center electricity consumption during calendar year 2030 divided by total US electricity consumption during the same year reaches or exceeds 12.0%, using a preregistered, consistent national accounting framework. The numerator includes AI and non-AI data-center activity; it is never labeled AI-only power demand.",
  "proposed_threshold": "Annual US data-center electricity consumption >= 12.0% of annual total US electricity consumption in calendar year 2030",
  "proposed_yes_criteria": [
    "A post-2030 national accounting report based on observed 2030 consumption supports a share at or above 12.0%.",
    "The numerator and denominator are comparable annual domestic electricity consumption measures with transparent treatment of on-site generation and behind-the-meter supply.",
    "Independent energy-data reviewers verify the calculations and source versions."
  ],
  "proposed_no_criteria": [
    "A sufficiently complete observed 2030 dataset shows a 2030 data-center consumption share below 12.0% under the locked accounting rules."
  ],
  "unresolved_prelock_requirements": [
    "Choose the primary post-2030 measurement authority and freeze accounting definitions before any forecast lock.",
    "The 2026 LBNL figure of 11.8% is a scenario reference estimate, not an observed 2030 result; it cannot be used to resolve the forecast.",
    "If measured 2030 coverage is not available by June 30, 2033, or published estimates are irreconcilably inconsistent, keep the question unresolved pending the protocol decision."
  ],
  "limitations": "2030 outcome must be independently measured after 2030. Today's 11.8% is a modeled reference projection, not an observed result; data centers include non-AI uses.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, June 2026",
      "url": "https://bies.lbl.gov/publications/united-states-data-center-energy-2025",
      "note": "2030 reference case: 11.8% of US electricity; scenario span: 9.5%-15.3%. These are forecasts, not measured outcomes."
    },
    {
      "label": "DOE OSTI technical report record",
      "url": "https://www.osti.gov/biblio/3374245",
      "note": "Archived source and DOI for the LBNL report."
    },
    {
      "label": "IEA: Key Questions on Energy and AI, 2026",
      "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai",
      "note": "Global context and uncertainty around AI-related electricity infrastructure."
    },
    {
      "label": "US Energy Information Administration",
      "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/",
      "note": "Independent US energy statistics relevant to the national denominator."
    }
  ]
}