{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "version": "0.2",
  "created_at": "2026-10-23",
  "forecast_id": "E-001",
  "assessment_type": "internal_editorial_pre_review_NOT_independent",
  "external_reviewers_appointed": 0,
  "external_signoffs": 0,
  "threshold_for_independent_approval": 2,
  "result": "HOLD",
  "official_probability": null,
  "previous_working_model_display_percent": 54,
  "corrected_working_model_display_percent": 54,
  "correction_explanation": "(15.3 - 12.0)^2 / [(15.3 - 9.5) x (15.3 - 11.8)] = 53.645% -> 54% (under an imposed triangular distribution)",
  "sensitivity_percent": [
    39,
    69
  ],
  "sensitivity_is_statistical_confidence_interval": false,
  "independent_calibration_validated": false,
  "review_verdict": "The LBNL scenario reference 11.8% and 9.5%-15.3% range are supported by an actual report; treating its range as a probability distribution is not. Without historical error calibration, the 54% is only sensitivity arithmetic.",
  "verified_source_scope": [
    "Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's 2025 report (published June 2026) describes 11.8% of US electricity in 2030 and a model scenario range of 9.5%-15.3%.",
    "The report uses bottom-up data-center equipment and cooling models, not a probabilistic predictive distribution."
  ],
  "blocking_findings": [
    {
      "code": "ENERGY-DIST",
      "severity": "critical",
      "task": "Fit a defensible probability distribution using historical LBNL forecast error/reliability or independent structured elicitation; do not infer confidence levels from scenario minima/maxima."
    },
    {
      "code": "ENERGY-BOUND",
      "severity": "critical",
      "task": "Freeze 2030 measured US data-center consumption definition, total-electricity denominator, on-site generation and power-unit consistency; select authoritative publication."
    },
    {
      "code": "ENERGY-METHOD",
      "severity": "high",
      "task": "Backtest forecasts for 2024-2028 where comparable observed data exist; run alternative error models and reveal threshold sensitivity."
    },
    {
      "code": "ENERGY-SIGN",
      "severity": "critical",
      "task": "Two conflict-cleared independent energy systems/data statistics reviewers must sign the locked rules and external timestamp."
    }
  ],
  "external_roles_needed": [
    "Independent US electricity / data-center energy statistician",
    "Forecast calibration methodologist with scenario-to-probability expertise"
  ],
  "primary_sources": [
    "https://bies.lbl.gov/publications/united-states-data-center-energy-2025",
    "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/",
    "https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-statistics-042424-050626"
  ],
  "lock_status": "NOT_READY_TO_LOCK",
  "scoring_eligible": false,
  "public_reviewer_contact": "https://cortist.com/contact/",
  "no_retroactive_lock": true,
  "versioned_prior_workpaper": "/data/forecasts/calibration/e-001-working-20261023.json"
}