{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "date": "2026-10-22",
  "status": "NOT_READY_TO_LOCK",
  "first_locked_forecast_id": null,
  "existing_records": [
    {
      "forecast_id": "F-001",
      "status": "draft",
      "probability": 0.38
    },
    {
      "forecast_id": "F-002",
      "status": "draft",
      "probability": 0.24
    }
  ],
  "gates": [
    {
      "id": "g1",
      "name": "Versioned public snapshot with SHA-256",
      "passed": true,
      "evidence": "https://cortist.com/data/forecasts/manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "g2",
      "name": "Separate R2 archive with snapshot retention",
      "passed": true,
      "evidence": "Cloudflare R2 bucket cortist-forecast-archive; snapshots/ prefix; 20-year age-based retention; admin can alter/remove rules"
    },
    {
      "id": "g3",
      "name": "Evidence rules and numerical thresholds independently reviewed",
      "passed": false,
      "evidence": "Rulebook proposals only; no independent evaluation or approval"
    },
    {
      "id": "g4",
      "name": "Two independent conflict-cleared reviewer signoffs",
      "passed": false,
      "evidence": "No reviewers appointed"
    },
    {
      "id": "g5",
      "name": "An independent external cryptographic timestamp anchor verified",
      "passed": false,
      "evidence": "Not configured: R2 upload time and Pages deployment times are controlled by the same provider"
    },
    {
      "id": "g6",
      "name": "A prospectively issued and publicly confirmed lock snapshot",
      "passed": false,
      "evidence": "None. Prior drafts remain ineligible."
    },
    {
      "id": "g7",
      "name": "Public resolution and scoring workflow",
      "passed": true,
      "evidence": "https://cortist.com/forecast/protocol/ and https://cortist.com/forecast/results/ (zero adjudications)"
    }
  ],
  "warning": "R2 Bucket Lock protects against ordinary object overwrites and deletes while active; administrators can change retention rules. It is not legal WORM compliance, an independent timestamp or third-party verification. Do not relabel old drafts as locked."
}