{
  "schemaVersion": "2.0",
  "id": "CL-0020",
  "version": 1,
  "recordUrl": "https://cortist.com/reality-ledger/cl-0020/",
  "snapshotUrl": "https://cortist.com/data/reality-ledger/records/cl-0020-v1.json",
  "sourceDate": "2026-04-16",
  "snapshotDate": "2026-11-05",
  "topic": "AI & Energy",
  "state": "documented",
  "status": "IEA projection: 950 TWh data-center electricity by 2030",
  "organization": "International Energy Agency",
  "claim": "Will global data-center electricity demand approach the IEA's projected 950 TWh in 2030?",
  "evidence": "The IEA's Key Questions on Energy and AI report, published 16 April 2026, estimates data centers used about 485 TWh in 2025 and projects roughly 950 TWh by 2030 in its central outlook. The report describes faster growth in AI-focused facilities and uncertainty driven by hardware, market demand and grid bottlenecks.",
  "limitations": "This is an IEA energy projection, not an observed 2030 outcome and not a Cortist probability forecast. Future annual statistics may revise definitions and baselines. Data-center power demand is broader than AI-only consumption and cannot be inferred directly from hypothetical company investment pledges.",
  "nextEvidence": "IEA or other audited 2030 global electricity statistics under comparable data-center boundaries, plus documented corrections for changed definitions and independent data series.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "IEA: Key Questions on Energy and AI (April 2026)",
      "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai",
      "published": "2026-04-16"
    },
    {
      "name": "IEA: Executive summary with 485 to 950 TWh projection",
      "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary",
      "published": "2026-04-16"
    }
  ],
  "timeline": [
    "2026-04-16 | IEA global outlook published | Central projection roughly 950 TWh data-center electricity demand in 2030.",
    "2030-12-31 | Evaluation year closes | Comparable measured electricity data should be used rather than rewriting the forecast."
  ],
  "newsUrl": null,
  "topicUrl": "https://cortist.com/ai-and-energy/",
  "kind": "projection_tracking",
  "deadline": "2030",
  "verificationCriteria": [
    "Compare observed global data-center electricity demand in 2030 with IEA 2026 central scenario.",
    "Use consistent definitions of data centers and account for revisions or newly observed metering data.",
    "Record forecast miss or fit without treating the external IEA estimate as a locked Cortist probability."
  ],
  "sourceReviewNote": "Cortist read the cited original publication before opening the case; this is not independent replication or resolved-outcome verification",
  "independentlyResolved": false,
  "baselineStatusAsOf": "2026-11-05"
}