{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "topic": "AI Existential Risk",
  "updated": "2026-10-22",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "XR-1",
      "date": "2026-09-21",
      "speaker": "UN Independent International Scientific Panel on AI",
      "venue": "UN thematic brief",
      "type": "INDEPENDENT REVIEW",
      "headline": "Agent incidents bring control questions into focus",
      "paraphrase": "The UN reviewed unusual agent actions during AI cyber evaluations and discussed how research incidents inform debates about human oversight.",
      "caveat": "No probability or timing of severe loss of control was assigned.",
      "url": "https://www.un.org/independent-international-scientific-panel-ai/en/thematic-briefs/ai-agents-misalignment-risks?cat=top-stories"
    },
    {
      "id": "XR-2",
      "date": "2026-05-19",
      "speaker": "METR",
      "venue": "Documented AI Agent Incidents",
      "type": "EMPIRICAL RESEARCH",
      "headline": "An incident record of overreach and deception",
      "paraphrase": "METR maintained a catalogue of AI agent incidents, distinguishing steps taken outside instructions from deliberate concealment.",
      "caveat": "A selected incident record is not a representative risk rate.",
      "url": "https://evals.alignment.org/agent-incidents/"
    },
    {
      "id": "XR-3",
      "date": "2026-02",
      "speaker": "International AI Safety Report 2026",
      "venue": "International research review",
      "type": "SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT",
      "headline": "Extreme loss-of-control likelihood remains disputed",
      "paraphrase": "The report distinguishes future catastrophic scenarios from today's systems and finds strong disagreements about likelihood and mechanisms.",
      "caveat": "Today's systems lack the capabilities associated with irreversible global loss of control.",
      "url": "https://internationalaisafetyreport.org/publication/international-ai-safety-report-2026"
    },
    {
      "id": "XR-4",
      "date": "2025-01-29",
      "speaker": "Yoshua Bengio and international contributors",
      "venue": "International AI Safety Report 2025",
      "type": "SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT",
      "headline": "International assessment of future control risks",
      "paraphrase": "The first international report reviewed AI misuse, malfunctions and hypothetical loss of human control as scientific research questions.",
      "caveat": "Reviewing a risk is not evidence that its most severe outcome is inevitable.",
      "url": "https://internationalaisafetyreport.org/publication/international-ai-safety-report-2025"
    },
    {
      "id": "XR-5",
      "date": "2024-05-21",
      "speaker": "Frontier AI developers and Seoul Summit governments",
      "venue": "AI Seoul Summit safety commitments",
      "type": "GOVERNANCE",
      "headline": "Developers agree on severe-risk assessment commitments",
      "paraphrase": "Companies agreed to publish frontier safety frameworks and work on evaluation, mitigations and transparency.",
      "caveat": "Voluntary commitments are not independent safety certification.",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/frontier-ai-safety-commitments-ai-seoul-summit-2024/frontier-ai-safety-commitments-ai-seoul-summit-2024"
    },
    {
      "id": "XR-6",
      "date": "2024",
      "speaker": "Yann LeCun",
      "venue": "TIME interview",
      "type": "SKEPTICAL VIEW",
      "headline": "Why LeCun challenges existential-risk narratives",
      "paraphrase": "LeCun argued that current models lack important reasoning and real-world understanding and that high intelligence need not entail a desire to dominate.",
      "caveat": "Expert skepticism does not prove all possible future systems are harmless.",
      "url": "https://time.com/6694432/yann-lecun-meta-ai-interview/"
    },
    {
      "id": "XR-7",
      "date": "2023-07-05",
      "speaker": "Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike / OpenAI",
      "venue": "Introducing Superalignment",
      "type": "RESEARCH OUTLOOK",
      "headline": "OpenAI announces research into controlling superintelligence",
      "paraphrase": "OpenAI argued that future systems much smarter than humans might be difficult to control and proposed a research program.",
      "caveat": "A research motivation is not a calibrated probability of extinction.",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-superalignment/"
    },
    {
      "id": "XR-8",
      "date": "2023-05-30",
      "speaker": "Geoffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio and other signatories",
      "venue": "Center for AI Safety statement",
      "type": "PUBLIC WARNING",
      "headline": "Researchers call for attention to AI extinction risk",
      "paraphrase": "A group of researchers and leaders signed a public statement prioritizing discussion of AI-driven extinction risk.",
      "caveat": "The statement gives no single agreed date, percentage or causal pathway.",
      "url": "https://safe.ai/work/press-release-ai-risk"
    },
    {
      "id": "XR-9",
      "date": "2023-05-22",
      "speaker": "Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and Ilya Sutskever",
      "venue": "Governance of Superintelligence",
      "type": "GOVERNANCE PROPOSAL",
      "headline": "An argument for international superintelligence oversight",
      "paraphrase": "The authors urged preparation, oversight and coordination for hypothetical AI systems more capable than expert humans.",
      "caveat": "The proposal is not proof that superintelligence already exists.",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/governance-of-superintelligence/"
    }
  ]
}