{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "topic": "Artificial superintelligence",
  "compiled_date": "2026-10-22",
  "editorial_note": "All entries are paraphrases with source pointers, not verbatim quotations unless explicitly marked. Different definitions, claims, research, policy and measurements should not be conflated with a scored forecast.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "id": "asi-S01",
      "date": "2026-10-16",
      "speaker_or_authors": "NIST, NSA and CISA",
      "venue": "NIST joint agency announcement",
      "statement_type": "SAFETY / POLICY",
      "headline": "Ten practices for advanced-agent incident readiness",
      "summary_paraphrase": "US agencies published voluntary practices covering preparation, detection, response, recovery and reporting during advanced-agent training and evaluation.",
      "qualification": "US government policy calls this super intelligence; it is NOT proof of research-level ASI.",
      "original_source": "https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/10/key-practices-incident-readiness-and-response-super-intelligence-training"
    },
    {
      "id": "asi-S02",
      "date": "2026-09-06",
      "speaker_or_authors": "Jakub Pachocki",
      "venue": "OpenAI chief scientist essay: An Alien Mind",
      "statement_type": "RESEARCH OUTLOOK",
      "headline": "Machines smarter than humans within a lifetime",
      "summary_paraphrase": "Pachocki reflected on reasoning-model progress and wrote that researchers should take seriously the prospect of machines meaningfully smarter than ourselves within their lifetimes.",
      "qualification": "Personal long-horizon assessment; no ASI arrival date or independently demonstrated ASI.",
      "original_source": "https://openai.com/index/an-alien-mind/"
    },
    {
      "id": "asi-S03",
      "date": "2026-07-26",
      "speaker_or_authors": "Safe Superintelligence Inc.",
      "venue": "SSI company updates",
      "statement_type": "COMPANY COMMITMENT",
      "headline": "SSI announced a compute-scale partnership with NVIDIA",
      "summary_paraphrase": "The company reported a strategic partnership that it said would increase its available compute capacity by about tenfold.",
      "qualification": "Capacity investment toward a goal is not a demonstration of superintelligence.",
      "original_source": "https://ssi.inc/updates"
    },
    {
      "id": "asi-S04",
      "date": "2026-06-12",
      "speaker_or_authors": "Tim Genewein, Shane Legg and Google DeepMind coauthors",
      "venue": "Google DeepMind report: From AGI to ASI",
      "statement_type": "RESEARCH",
      "headline": "Four possible pathways from AGI to ASI",
      "summary_paraphrase": "Researchers surveyed scaling, paradigm shifts, recursive improvement and large-scale multi-agent collectives as possible routes beyond AGI, stressing major uncertainty and bottlenecks.",
      "qualification": "Conceptual research; the report supplies no single agreed arrival year.",
      "original_source": "https://deepmind.google/research/publications/239142/"
    },
    {
      "id": "asi-S05",
      "date": "2026-06-09",
      "speaker_or_authors": "OpenAI",
      "venue": "OpenAI: Industrial policy for the Intelligence Age",
      "statement_type": "PUBLIC POLICY",
      "headline": "Superintelligence needs new social and economic institutions",
      "summary_paraphrase": "OpenAI presented exploratory policy proposals intended for a transition toward superintelligence, emphasizing public participation and institutions rather than only capability milestones.",
      "qualification": "A policy agenda, not a statement that ASI already exists.",
      "original_source": "https://openai.com/index/industrial-policy-for-the-intelligence-age/"
    },
    {
      "id": "asi-S06",
      "date": "2025-07-30",
      "speaker_or_authors": "Mark Zuckerberg",
      "venue": "Meta: Personal Superintelligence for Everyone",
      "statement_type": "CORPORATE VISION",
      "headline": "Meta publicly set out a personal-superintelligence vision",
      "summary_paraphrase": "Zuckerberg argued that personal superintelligence should amplify individual agency and said Meta would direct its research and product efforts toward that future.",
      "qualification": "Strategic vision and company ambition, not a verified ASI system.",
      "original_source": "https://about.fb.com/news/2025/07/personal-superintelligence-for-everyone/"
    },
    {
      "id": "asi-S07",
      "date": "2025-07-03",
      "speaker_or_authors": "Ilya Sutskever",
      "venue": "Safe Superintelligence Inc.: company update",
      "statement_type": "FOUNDER STATEMENT",
      "headline": "Sutskever reaffirmed SSI's exclusive focus on safe superintelligence",
      "summary_paraphrase": "In an official update, Sutskever said he was leading SSI as CEO and that the company would continue work toward safe superintelligence.",
      "qualification": "Company mission and leadership update, with no demonstrated ASI milestone.",
      "original_source": "https://ssi.inc/updates"
    },
    {
      "id": "asi-S08",
      "date": "2025-01-06",
      "speaker_or_authors": "Sam Altman",
      "venue": "Personal essay: Reflections",
      "statement_type": "EXECUTIVE OUTLOOK",
      "headline": "Altman shifted public emphasis beyond AGI toward superintelligence",
      "summary_paraphrase": "Altman wrote that OpenAI was beginning to aim beyond its traditional AGI framing toward superintelligence and the prospect of much faster scientific discovery.",
      "qualification": "Executive ambition; no verifiable timeline or proof of superintelligence.",
      "original_source": "https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections"
    },
    {
      "id": "asi-S09",
      "date": "2024-06-19",
      "speaker_or_authors": "Ilya Sutskever and Safe Superintelligence Inc.",
      "venue": "SSI founding announcement",
      "statement_type": "COMPANY FOUNDING",
      "headline": "SSI launched with safe superintelligence as its sole goal",
      "summary_paraphrase": "SSI presented itself as a laboratory focused on simultaneously advancing capabilities and safety toward safe superintelligence.",
      "qualification": "The laboratory launch is documented; a product goal must not be confused with an achieved result.",
      "original_source": "https://ssi.inc/"
    },
    {
      "id": "asi-S10",
      "date": "2023-07-05",
      "speaker_or_authors": "Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike",
      "venue": "OpenAI: Introducing Superalignment",
      "statement_type": "TIMELINE / SAFETY",
      "headline": "OpenAI said superintelligence could arrive within the 2020s",
      "summary_paraphrase": "In launching its superalignment effort, OpenAI stated its belief that superintelligence could arrive during that decade and described the need for new methods to control systems much smarter than humans.",
      "qualification": "Historical organizational outlook, conditional and unscored; not evidence of arrival.",
      "original_source": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-superalignment/"
    },
    {
      "id": "asi-S11",
      "date": "2023-05-22",
      "speaker_or_authors": "Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and Ilya Sutskever",
      "venue": "OpenAI: Governance of superintelligence",
      "statement_type": "GOVERNANCE / SCENARIO",
      "headline": "A ten-year scenario for systems beyond expert-level capability",
      "summary_paraphrase": "The authors argued that systems surpassing expert skill in most domains within ten years were conceivable and proposed special international coordination and audits.",
      "qualification": "Scenario analysis rather than a numerical probability or independently resolved ASI forecast.",
      "original_source": "https://openai.com/index/governance-of-superintelligence/"
    }
  ]
}