Will a robot complete at least 50% of five-object LADDER tasks by October 2027?
Real-robot LADDER five-object sequences: at least 50% complete. The question has a 27 October 2027 deadline, but no official Cortist probability or scored forecast vintage exists yet.
Evidence Pulse 2.0 checks the published Cortist News index when JavaScript is available. The source-linked, dated research articles remain accessible through Cortist News.
- Question ID
- CM-002
- Deadline
- 27 October 2027, 23:59 UTC for observable events
- Outcome measure
- Real-robot LADDER five-object sequences: at least 50% complete
- Forecast status
- Candidate definition only · no probability · not locked · not scoreable
- Evidence vintage
- First candidate text published 27 October 2026
What do we know today?
INSAIT introduced LADDER on 26 October 2026 and reported persistent difficulty with long sequences.
Direct physical reliability test; definition not yet ready to score.
How would this milestone be resolved?
What qualifies as YES
A benchmark-owner or independent evaluator publishes 50% or higher end-to-end real-robot success on a pre-registered identical five-object task subset.
What qualifies as NO
A complete dated archive of the agreed task split shows less than 50% at deadline.
What would not qualify?
Simulation-only scores, teleoperated assistance, single-object tasks and selectively edited demos do not count.
Unresolved definition gate
Freeze exact five-object subset, trial counts, evaluation protocol and result archival before locking.
Consequence: no probability should be locked or scored before this issue is resolved and the protocol is externally timestamped.
Why does it matter?
Direct physical reliability test; definition not yet ready to score. INSAIT introduced LADDER on 26 October 2026 and reported persistent difficulty with long sequences.
Interpretation limit: Direct physical reliability test; definition not yet ready to score. An individual benchmark or adoption result is not proof of AGI or a universal model capability.
Primary sources and verification references
- Primary source / methodology (original reference)
- Official reference / evidence (original reference)
What will Cortist publish next?
Before treating this candidate as a numerical forecast, Cortist must freeze the evaluation protocol, verify that the event is not already resolved, define an independent public evidence source and record a probability in a new, immutable version. The present candidate page is not part of the scored probability history.
Read Cortist’s public Forecast Protocol · View the existing immutable forecast register · Explore the AI & Robotics Topic.
Machine-readable candidate record: v1 JSON. Original candidate publication: 27 October 2026.