Two accountable, publisher-approved numerical predictions about real events. Exact definitions, dated source trails, public content hashes and unchanged original vintages. Future misses stay visible.
After this forecast first goes live on cortist.com and no later than 27 October 2027, 23:59:59 UTC, will the European Commission formally adopt at least one decision imposing a fine on a provider of a general-purpose AI model expressly under Article 101(1) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1689?
Cutoff: 27 October 2027, 23:59:59 UTC. Document review ends: 25 January 2028.
After this forecast first goes live on cortist.com and no later than 27 October 2027, 23:59:59 UTC, will a member of the general public complete at least one publicly bookable, paid Waymo passenger ride within Munich municipal boundaries, with no onboard safety driver?
Cutoff: 27 October 2027, 23:59:59 UTC. Document review ends: 25 January 2028.
Reproduce the check yourself. Download either original JSON file, calculate its SHA-256 checksum and compare it with the value below and the original forecast registry. These hashes describe exact file bytes, not a prediction's accuracy.
2be4461355d1f11c761fa04ac75a3d85938f733814f9a0650d32ba97aa029765e0cee6504f9196509e948de49a382b4882dc14683b1276189ad7c29cace6a8baThe publisher's dated release receipt identifies the original Cloudflare production deployment (27 October 2026, 11:45:15 UTC). This is hosting-provider and publisher-controlled evidence, not an independent Bitcoin timestamp or external attestation. Neither forecast has an external reviewer, resolved result or Brier score. The publisher's individual legal identity and a signed conflict declaration are not supplied in the original records.
Each v1 original is archived with a SHA-256 content digest in the additive official registry. The prospective event window begins at the first successful production release of those exact bytes on cortist.com, not the preparation or preview stage.
Events must meet the originally declared binary rules before 27 October 2027 23:59:59 UTC. Later published evidence may be considered through 25 January 2028, without changing the event date. Ambiguous or incomplete evidence remains UNRESOLVED rather than being forced into NO.
For a resolved event, the Brier score is (p − o)², where p is the original probability as a fraction and o is the verified binary outcome. The entire record, including wrong forecasts, remains public.