Will global data-center electricity demand approach the IEA's projected 950 TWh in 2030?
International Energy Agency
This is a first-record evidence baseline. It does not establish independent verification of every research result or completion of future commitments.
Claim and evidence
The IEA's Key Questions on Energy and AI report, published 16 April 2026, estimates data centers used about 485 TWh in 2025 and projects roughly 950 TWh by 2030 in its central outlook. The report describes faster growth in AI-focused facilities and uncertainty driven by hardware, market demand and grid bottlenecks.
Limitations and uncertainty
This is an IEA energy projection, not an observed 2030 outcome and not a Cortist probability forecast. Future annual statistics may revise definitions and baselines. Data-center power demand is broader than AI-only consumption and cannot be inferred directly from hypothetical company investment pledges.
Explicit acceptance criteria
- Compare observed global data-center electricity demand in 2030 with IEA 2026 central scenario.
- Use consistent definitions of data centers and account for revisions or newly observed metering data.
- Record forecast miss or fit without treating the external IEA estimate as a locked Cortist probability.
Dated baseline events
The entries below capture original source and publication milestones. They do not imply that later claims have already been fulfilled or independently replicated.