← Evidence Graph
CL-0005 / ORIGINAL CLAIM · V1.0
What does the 3.7% decline in AI-exposed young-worker jobs prove?
ADP Research / Stanford
Status shown is from the original October 2026 claim snapshot. This page is not a new outcome certification or a revised historical record.
01 / What evidence shows
What is actually documented?
ADP reported a September 2026 year-over-year 3.7% employment decline for US ages 22–25 in highly AI-exposed occupations, versus a 0.2% increase in least-exposed jobs.
What remains uncertain?
Observational payroll trends do not prove AI caused the decline; exposure differs from measured displacement.
Next evidence required: Later payroll releases and research separating AI adoption from other labor-market drivers.
02 / Signal evolution
What was documented, and when?
The entries below are reproduced from the case’s original version-1 research timeline, not newly inferred status changes. Future material developments must appear as separate dated revisions.
Original entry 12026-10-21: ADP publishes the September payroll comparison
Most recent scheduled source review: No source re-read confirmed in the 5 November QA snapshot. A source review does not by itself change the original claim status.
03 / Continue the audit